Aon, a leading global professional services firm, forecasts that medical plan costs worldwide will rise by an average of 9.8% in 2026, according to its “2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report”. This marks a return to single-digit global growth rates for the first time since 2023.
By region, the Middle East and Africa is expected to see the fastest increase in medical plan costs in 2026, although the pace is forecast to slow marginally compared to 2025. This is attributed to easing inflation in the region.
North America and Asia-Pacific (APAC) are the only regions where Aon projects an increase in medical trend rates, reaching 9.3% and 11.3% respectively. In contrast, Aon’s report shows that Europe is expected to see the largest decline, with rates dropping from 8.9% in 2025 to 8.2% in 2026. Despite persistently high costs driven by advanced medical technologies and imported pharmaceuticals, the Latin America and Caribbean region is forecast to experience a lower gross medical trend rate of 10.3% — down from 2025 — due to declines observed in several larger markets.
The medical trend rate represents the projected annual percentage increase in employer-sponsored medical plan unit costs required to address anticipated price inflation, cost of technology advances, higher plan utilisation and rising cost of prescription drugs.
Key medical conditions driving costs in 2026
- Cardiovascular disease remains the top medical condition anticipated to influence plan costs in 2026. This trend is consistent across all regions, with more than 20 countries identifying it as the most impactful condition.
- Cancer/tumor growth ranks among the top five cost-driving condition in every region in every region, with 20 countries identifying it as the most impactful. The most commonly diagnosed cancers globally include lung, breast, colorectal and prostate cancers.
- High blood pressure/hypertension continues to be a leading risk factor for numerous other conditions and is consistently cited as a key driver of medical claims. It was identified as the most impactful condition by 18 countries.
Ms Kathryn Davis, a global benefits vice president at Aon, said, “Even as global inflation cools in some markets, healthcare costs remain under significant pressure. Rising healthcare costs have become a pervasive business challenge, requiring organisations to proactively plan and adopt predictive analytics alongside innovative cost management strategies to stay ahead.”
She also said, “In addition to macroeconomic global factors, trends in the healthcare space are also contributing to persistently high medical inflation rates compared to historical norms. These include higher utilisation rates, the adoption of new advanced technologies and a growing demand for private healthcare services. Additionally, aging populations in Europe, APAC and Latin America are emerging as key drivers of rising medical costs.” M