Scientists have found that global warming in the Middle East and North Africa is making breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancer more common and more deadly. The rise in rates is small but statistically significant, suggesting a notable increase in cancer risk and fatalities over time.
The researchers looked at 17 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, where temperatures are expected to rise by four degrees Celsius by 2050, and found that these four cancers became more common and more likely to be fatal with each degree rise in temperature. The increase can’t be explained by improved diagnosis or survival rates. The researchers call for the urgent integration of climate change resilience into public health plans, according to an article carried in Frontiers in Public Health.
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises—particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria of the American University in Cairo, first author of the article. “Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
The 17 Middle Eastern and North African countries covered in the study were: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Palestine. These countries are seriously vulnerable to climate change and are already seeing striking temperature rises. The researchers collected data on the prevalence and mortality of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer, and uterine cancer, and compared this information with changing temperatures between 1998 and 2019.
“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said co-author Dr Sungsoo Chun of the American University in Cairo. “This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalised women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”
The researchers found that cancer prevalence and deaths rose in only six countries—Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Syria. This could be due to particularly extreme summer temperatures in these countries, or other factors which the model couldn’t capture. The rise was not uniform between countries: for instance, the prevalence of breast cancer rose by 560 cases per 100,000 people for each degree Celsius in Qatar, but only 330 in Bahrain.
This also suggests that temperature has a different effect in different countries — so there are likely to be other factors modifying risk. For instance, increased heat could be associated with higher levels of carcinogenic air pollution in some places.
Higher prevalence could also reflect improvements in cancer screening. However, better screening would be expected to result in fewer deaths, as early-stage cancer is easier to treat. But both death rates and prevalence rose, suggesting that the driving factor is exposure to risk factors. M