Insurers' creditworthiness in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan will remain resilient in 2026, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) has forecast.
In a report titled “Momentum For Insurers In Emerging EMEA Is Set To Continue In 2026", S&P Credit Analyst Tatiana Grineva said, "In our view, economic growth prospects and earnings potential for insurers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan will remain solid. This will support increased insurance demand and penetration rates, which are still relatively low in most markets."
However, creditworthiness is tempered by elevated geopolitical risk and potential financial risk resulting from spillovers from trade tariffs, which S&P continues to consider as key downside risks in emerging markets.
Despite varying regulations and market maturity, insurers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will face ongoing high competition, while insurers in South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan will likely face pressures from heightened sovereign risk, inflation, foreign exchange risk, and interest rate-related risks. This could weigh on profitability and capital buffers.
In 2026, the focus will shift from headline capital ratios to the underlying quality of capitalisation. Regulators across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan are increasingly adopting risk-based solvency frameworks that are more aligned with international standards, though progress varies by market.
This transition will favour insurers with strong governance frameworks, diverse funding sources, and solid actuarial capabilities, as regulatory scrutiny increasingly emphasises transparency and financial resilience.