AXA Turkiye and AXA Climate have released its climate report, focussing on the central message that climate change should be understood not as a series of isolated natural disasters, but as an interconnected system of risks affecting water, health, agriculture, infrastructure, cities and the insurance sector.
The “AXA Turkiye Climate Report 2026”, released on 6 October 2026 during Turkiye’s Insurance Week, assesses how physical climate risks could evolve. It uses local data plus projections from seven global climate models. It examines seven major risks, including water stress, extreme heat, heavy precipitation, wildfires, floods, landslides and frost, with the analysis extending to 2050.
The key findings of the report are:
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Water stress is the largest systemic concern. By 2050, approximately 65m people—around 74% of Turkiye's population—could face high or very high water stress, while about 66% of the country's land area could experience significant water scarcity.
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Extreme heat will become substantially more severe. Around 23m people could experience significant heat stress by 2050. In Antalya, the number of days exceeding 40°C could increase by more than 30 per year.
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Turkiye faces a paradox of drought and flooding. Annual precipitation is projected to decline, particularly in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions, while intense rainfall events become more frequent. Approximately 43 m people could experience at least five days of severe rainfall annually.
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Flood and landslide exposure is highly concentrated in cities. Around 4.5m people could live in flood-prone areas and approximately 14m could face high or very high landslide risk by 2050.
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Wildfire risk is substantial and increasingly urban-adjacent. Around 10 m people could face high wildfire risk, with high-risk areas potentially covering about 16% of Turkiye's territory.
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Agriculture faces multiple simultaneous stresses, including heat, water scarcity, wildfire and frost. Crops such as olives, citrus, grapes, pistachios, figs, hazelnuts and apricots are particularly relevant.
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Istanbul represents a major concentration of physical risk. The report estimates roughly 322,000 people could be exposed to flood risk and 1.5m to high landslide risk by 2050.
The report's most important insight is the compound nature of climate risk. For example:
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Water scarcity → agricultural losses → higher food prices → economic pressure, while
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Heat + drought → wildfire → property damage + business interruption
These interactions mean that conventional, single-hazard risk assessments may substantially underestimate the eventual economic and insurance impact.
Implications for insurers and businesses
The report points toward a shift from "insure the loss" to "prevent and reduce the loss".
For insurers, this means more granular underwriting, climate-risk pricing, early-warning systems and investment in resilience.
For companies and investors, climate exposure increasingly needs to be assessed at the level of individual assets, supply chains and locations, rather than simply at country or sector level.
The most attractive adaptation opportunities are likely to emerge around water infrastructure, flood protection, resilient urban development, wildfire prevention, agricultural resilience, early-warning systems and climate-risk analytics.