The War, Terrorism, and Political Violence (WTPV) market has entered a materially more complex phase, according to Marsh Re. Middle East losses are being discussed at north of $2bn against an annual gross premium base of approximately $2.5bn, making this likely the first loss-making year for the class since 9/11.
In its “Global Specialties 2026 Market Update”, Marsh Re said that the market response has been selective rather than uniform. Pricing has tightened where losses are concentrated, but elsewhere the softening trend has paused rather than reversed, reflecting capacity meeting geographically concentrated loss.
Demand is outpacing pricing, with submissions surging as Middle East-based insureds seek war-on-land cover not previously purchased, and insureds globally respond to a heightened risk environment with requests for broader protection.
Capacity is not retreating; Marsh Re placed a new consortium in June capable of deploying up to $47.5m per risk in the Middle East and $345m globally, capacity that did not exist a year ago.
The value of stand-alone WTPV reinsurance has been clearly demonstrated. Clients relying solely on composite programmes risk significant net exposures across remaining marine and energy classes once war losses erode shared limits.