The ongoing Middle East conflict is projected to lead to a loss in growth of at least 0.2 percentage points in Africa's GDP for 2026 if it exceeds six months, according to a policy brief released by the African Union.
The brief, titled “The Impacts of the Middle East Conflict on Africa”, says that the extent of this impact would vary across the continent based on levels of import dependency, exposure to the Middle East and global market conditions.
Thus, the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertiliser supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent. More broadly, the conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions.
Fertiliser supply shock
For some African countries, the fertiliser channel may be even more consequential than the oil shock. Disruptions to Gulf liquid natural gas (LNG) supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertiliser costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season. This would put further upward pressure on food prices and hit vulnerable households hardest, with significant negative impacts on food security in Africa.
The Middle East accounts for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports, while the Strait of Hormuz handles around 20% of global oil exports and nearly 90 percent of Persian Gulf oil exports.
While the conflict is generating broad economic risks for Africa, a few countries may see short-term gains through higher commodity prices, trade diversion, and rerouted logistics.
Nigeria stands to benefit from higher oil prices and the export expansion of the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique could gain from renewed momentum in LNG and increased traffic through the Port of Maputo.
South Africa’s Durban port, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius are also benefiting from shipping rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which is boosting port activity, bunkering, and maritime services.
In East Africa, Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is benefiting from its role as the emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa, and Europe through Ethiopian Airlines. These gains, however, are likely to be uneven and may not offset the wider inflationary, fiscal, and food-security pressures affecting the continent.
Policy responses
The brief adds that policy responses to the Middle East war should be sequenced across three horizons: immediate shock absorption, medium-term resilience support from development institutions, and long-term structural action by African governments and development partners.
Short term
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African countries could activate contingency import financing arrangements, including pooled fuel procurement and emergency food corridors, diversifying sourcing of fertilisers where logistically feasible.
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Net oil and gas exporting countries should save excess revenues during times of price boom into sovereign wealth funds or other revenue buffers for productive investments.
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African countries could deploy temporary, targeted social protection measures to protect the most vulnerable populations.
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International and regional financial institutions could deploy countercyclical instruments to help avail rapid budget support, trade finance facilities, import guarantees, and policy-triggered liquidity for vulnerable countries.
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Central banks should implement flexible strategic monetary and exchange rate policies.
Medium term
African Union members could:
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Strengthen energy security by expanding African refining, storage, distribution, and interconnection systems, while accelerating renewable energy deployment to reduce import dependence.
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Protect and rebuild fiscal space through stronger domestic resource mobilisation, targeted social protection, and buffers that preserve essential spending during external shocks.
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Accelerate AfCFTA implementation to strengthen regional supply chains, lower border costs, and improve the movement of essential goods during crises, while creating long-term opportunities for the development of regional trade corridors.
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Build African financial safety nets by deepening domestic capital markets, reforming the African financial architecture, and developing shock-response instruments such as crisis facilities and debt-service swaps.
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Pursue an African common position on debt shock clauses, shipping insurance, and emergency food corridors, giving the continent greater bargaining power in future crises.
Long term
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The African Union could champion development of a Continental Crisis and Resilience Compact centred on three pillars: building energy and food security, strengthening financial safety nets, and strategic trade and financing autonomy. This could include operationalising the roadmap for the African Financing Stability Mechanism (AFSM) to fast-track its implementation to strengthen the management of debt financing risks through reserve pooling, reallocated SDRs, and other forms of liquidity backstop instruments.
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Countries could strengthen Africa’s collective geopolitical agency by reinforcing African Union and regional mechanisms for unity, peace and security, advancing a common foreign-policy voice, and upholding multilateralism, international law, and peaceful dispute resolution as the basis for Africa’s engagement in global crises.
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Countries could reduce vulnerability to external geopolitical shocks by designing continental fuel and fertiliser security strategies, pursuing strategic nonalignment, and diversifying economic and financing partnerships.
The policy brief was prepared by a joint task force led by the African Development Bank Group, the African Union, the United Nations Development Programme-Regional Bureau for Africa, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.