Climate on track to warm by nearly 2.9 ºC
Source: Middle East Insurance Review | Jan 2024
The current emissions pledges to limit climate change would still put the world on track to warm by nearly 3 ºC during this century according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again) released in November 2023 said all nations need to accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions will need to take more ambitious action and support developing nations as they pursue low-emissions development growth.
The 14th edition of the Emissions Gap report assesses countries’ promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed. It found the world faces between 2.5 ºC and 2.9 ºC of warming above preindustrial levels if governments do not boost climate action.
At 3 degrees C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.
The new UN report does little to inspire hope that this goal remains in reach, finding that planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 to hold warming at 1.5 ºC target.
According to scientific data and analysis results even in the most optimistic emissions scenario, the chance of now limiting warming to 1.5 ºC is just 14% – the goal is virtually dead. Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The report assessed countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which they are required to update every five years, to determine how much the world might warm if these plans were fully implemented.