Insurance growth to outstrip GDP increase
MENA insurance markets will see continued growth and better profitability, says Mr Henner Alms of Dr. Schanz, Alms & Company.
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The insurance markets of MENA are expected to continue outgrowing the region’s GDP over the next 12 months. This is the outcome of the most recent MENA Insurance Pulse, published at the 32nd GAIF General Conference in Hammamet, Tunisia.
The study found that the region’s strong insurance premium growth is still considered the market’s most relevant strength, followed by significantly modernised regulatory regimes and a relatively moderate Nat CAT exposure.
Going forward, markets are expected to benefit from the region’s low insurance penetration, which is still a mere quarter of the global average.
Personal and commercial lines
According to the senior executives interviewed for this year’s 6th edition of the survey, personal lines are the key driver for the region’s premium growth. They benefit from compulsory insurance requirements, in particular in medical and motor in markets like Saudi Arabia or the UAE. In addition, the Saudi regulator, SAMA, took some rating actions which positively impacted volume growth.
In commercial lines, price adequacy has improved, especially in property business, mainly in response to severe fire claims experienced in the past 12 months.
Rates and profitability are felt to have passed the bottom of the cycle. The executives polled view current prices in the MENA region’s commercial and personal lines business as being at or above the average of the past three years.
In addition, a vast majority expects rates in commercial and personal lines to remain stable or increase further over the next 12 months.
Due to commercial and regulatory pressure, the trend in stable prices will continue.
Overall, personal lines are expected to outperform commercial lines as regulatory pricing actions and the enforcement of compulsory insurance schemes, like motor and medical, exert a strong effect on both premium growth and rates.
In commercial lines, respondents still consider overall profitability to be low. Although rates have improved, a higher frequency of large claims and deteriorating reinsurance contract terms and conditions took their toll.
In personal lines, a vast majority of interviewees consider current profitability as higher or in line with the average of the past three years.
Going forward, the executives polled expect profitability in both commercial and personal lines to remain largely unchanged as a result of corrective measures on pricing, reserving and claims settlement, as well as a continuation of regulatory support.
Challenges
Further, digitisation will contribute to reduce operating and acquisition expenses and enhance the appeal of insurance products to the region’s young consumers.
Excess capital and fierce competition are perceived as the most relevant weaknesses of the MENA insurance marketplace, affecting both pricing and profitability levels.
As workforce localisation requirements are enforced and the influx of expatriate workers slows, executives warn of a talent shortage, in particular where experience is needed or advanced digital skills required.
Finally, with more than 200 insurers – a third of them in the UAE – the MENA region’s insurance market remains highly fragmented. As regulators tighten solvency requirements and major investments in corporate systems and infrastructure are required to remain competitive, many of these players are considered non-viable and are expected to either exit the market or be acquired.
Geopolitical risks, including the uncertainty over the future of the nuclear deal with Iran, dampen the industry’s outlook. In addition, the region remains highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues. Although oil prices have recovered, there is an increased awareness of this vulnerability and volatility, as well as their implications for government spending, in particular when it comes to the region’s many high-profile construction projects – many of which have been stalled for the time being.
The MENA Insurance Pulse, produced by Dr. Schanz, Alms & Company, is an annual survey among insurers, reinsurers and brokers operating in the region’s $58bn primary insurance markets. This year, 45 senior executives participated in the in-depth interviews. The study was sponsored by AIG, PartnerRe and Tunis Re.
Mr Henner Alms is partner at Dr. Schanz, Alms & Company.